Deciphering Global Epidemics: Analytical Approaches to the by Andrew Cliff, Peter Haggett, Matthew Smallman-Raynor

By Andrew Cliff, Peter Haggett, Matthew Smallman-Raynor

This e-book makes use of info accrued within the American magazine Morbidity and Mortality Weekly record for a few 350 towns from worldwide to examine tendencies in international mortality on the flip of the 20th century, a interval that witnessed the most dramatic alterations in urban development on a global scale. The ailments thought of are diphtheria, enteric fever, measles, scarlet fever, tuberculosis and whooping cough--as good as dying from all motives. the knowledge have by no means earlier than been systematically analyzed and so they provide vital insights into styles of mortality from those ailments.

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In spatial terms, the geographical extent varies from a single city (the Cartagena yellow fever outbreak of 1741), through to the worldwide AIDS epidemic. 4 records the estimated crude mortality and the ratio of deaths to population. But, of course, these estimates are usually matters of considerable speculation. For example, the deaths attributed to measles in the 1875 Fiji epidemic vary from 28,000 to 40,000, with the bulk of scholarly opinion suggesting a figure of around 30,000. The rate of 1:4 deaths is an islands-wide average.

7 1:60 1:50 (Berlin) Havana, Cuba Paris (siege of) England and Wales England and Wales Fiji, southwest Pacific Pandemic Yellow fever Smallpox Whooping cough 4,000 8,348 (Berlin) 2,058 75,167 c. 36,000 US Marine Hospital Service (1896) Speck (1993) Speck (1993) 1:102 1:29 1:650 Low (1920) Prinzing (1916) Hardy (1993c) Scarlet fever 24,922 1:943 Creighton (1965) Measles+ sequelae Influenza 30,000 1:4 Cliff and Haggett (1985) 60,000 (France) 1:625 (France) Patterson (1986) 1817 1840-1855 1857 1870-1871 1870 1874 1875 (January-June) 1889-1891 Cholera Cholera Estimated ratio deaths to population Source 1899-1900 Alaska 'Great Sickness : measles + influenza ?

As with the later League of Nations and WHO data, we were aware that any such source would have to report (albeit in a selective or edited form) the raw material provided by a given country. Even in the 1990s, no international epidemiological agency has the resources to collect data independently (except occasionally by special surveys), and the figures used represent the end-result of a long process of reporting (or non-reporting) with many opportunities for error (see the review in Cliff and Haggett, 1988, pp.

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